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2017 Capital Market Outlook

  • We expect modest improvement in global GDP growth.
  • We see US economic growth leading with marginal improvement from Europe, Canada, and Emerging Markets.
  • We expect 2017 will see the MSCI World, S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Indices string together back-to-back positive years.
  • For 2017, we expect Canadian equities to realize total returns in the neighborhood of 10%, while we expect US equities to finish the year within a percent or two of a 7% total return. The divergence between sector results is likely to be large, providing greater opportunity for active managers versus a passive management approach.
  • We hold a positive outlook for equities in Europe and the Emerging Markets, but a negative outlook for Japanese equities.
  • Fixed Income will struggle to manage a positive return in 2017. We expect the total return to be flat, but if the yield curve were to shift up by much more than a half percent, we expect to see returns from the FTSE/TMX Canadian Bond Universe turning negative.
  • High quality fixed income securities have the ability to offset bouts of equity market weakness regardless of the underlying trend or the absolute levels of yields.
  • Our forecast for the Canadian dollar is to trade in the low 70¢ range in 2017.
  • We expect oil to reach an average WTI price of US$53/bbl over the course of 2017, beginning below that level and ending the year above.

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